Measuring the scale of counterfeit trade is difficult, because by its nature it goes unrecorded. The most widely used source in this field is the joint work of the OECD and the European Union Intellectual Property Office (EUIPO). In 2025 the two bodies published the fourth report in that series, "Mapping Global Trade in Fakes 2025". This article summarises the report's main findings and what they mean for manufacturers.
What the report measures, and how
The report rests on the most recent global customs seizure data available, namely 2021. The method was first developed by the OECD in 2008 and improved by the two bodies in the years that followed. UN Comtrade foreign trade statistics are combined with seizure data from the European Commission's Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union, the World Customs Organization and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement. From there, each country's propensity to export counterfeits and each product group's exposure to counterfeiting are estimated statistically; the results are supported by interviews with customs authorities.
A natural consequence of this method is that the estimate covers counterfeit goods traded internationally. The figures therefore show the scale of the problem in cross-border trade, not the whole of it.
Another consequence of relying on seizure data is that the figures are shaped by enforcement authorities' priorities and resources. The report notes that goods infringing intellectual property rights carry relatively low priority in customs and other enforcement bodies, and that those bodies often lack sufficient resources in the face of many competing priorities. It is therefore realistic to assume that behind every seized product there is a significant volume that reached the market without being caught.
Main findings
- In 2021 the value of global trade in counterfeit goods was about USD 467 billion, equal to 2.3 per cent of world imports.
- The estimate for 2019 was USD 464 billion and 2.5 per cent. The absolute value rose slightly while the share of total trade fell back a little.
- Counterfeit imports into the EU reached USD 117 billion (EUR 99 billion in EUIPO's calculation), equal to 4.7 per cent of the EU's imports from the rest of the world.
- Counterfeiting appears in around 50 of 96 product categories. Clothing, footwear, leather goods and electronics are the most targeted groups; within the value of seized goods, watches and footwear take the largest share.
The share fell, the risk did not
The drop from 2.5 to 2.3 per cent does not mean the problem has shrunk. The report notes that much of the post-pandemic growth in trade came from raw materials, and that manufactured goods — where counterfeiting concentrates — did not see the same increase. In short, the share fell because the denominator grew; the absolute value of counterfeit trade rose.
Where counterfeits come from, and how
Countries of origin and Türkiye
China and Hong Kong remain the main economies of origin for counterfeit goods, followed by Türkiye. Two details about Türkiye stand out in the report. First, Türkiye's share of the total value of seized counterfeits fell in 2021 compared with 2020, while the share of China and Hong Kong rose in the same period. Second, the report attributes Türkiye's place among countries of origin partly to its strategic geographic position and modern logistics infrastructure; the same features also make the country convenient for transit movements of counterfeit goods. In clothing, countries of origin are described as spread across the world, with Bangladesh, Lebanon, Syria and Türkiye seen as likely significant sources.
The rise of small parcels
Perhaps the report's most important operational finding is the shift in shipment format:
- In the 2020-21 period, around 60 per cent of customs seizures took place in postal shipments; express couriers followed with 17 per cent and air cargo with 13 per cent.
- Postal shipments account for only 18 per cent of the value seized. Sea freight takes the same share of value while making up just 2 per cent of seizures by count.
- The share of shipments containing fewer than 10 items rose from 61 per cent in 2017-19 to 79 per cent in 2020-21.
The report stresses that small parcels, classified as low-value trade, escape close inspection, that content descriptions are often vague, and that this format spread after the pandemic along with marketplace shopping.
Localisation and free trade zones
Counterfeiters are moving production closer to target markets. Localisation tactics — importing parts or packaging separately and assembling them in or near the destination market — make detection harder. The report notes that free trade zones, where oversight is relatively limited, play an important role in this trend, and that international waterways such as the Danube are also used.
Dangerous fakes
Because counterfeit goods pass no safety testing, they carry health, safety and environmental risks, and there is no responsible company to answer for a problem when one arises. The report lists pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, food and toys as particularly risky categories. It also finds the presence of dangerous products such as automotive spare parts and medicines in counterfeit imports into the EU concerning.
What it means for manufacturers
To understand what the figures mean at company level, EUIPO's 2024 sector study is a useful guide. Based on 2018-2021 data, it finds that counterfeiting costs the EU clothing sector an average of around EUR 12 billion in sales per year (5.2 per cent of sales), the cosmetics sector EUR 3 billion (4.8 per cent) and the toy sector EUR 1 billion (8.7 per cent). EUIPO sums the total loss across these three sectors as EUR 16 billion and roughly 200,000 jobs a year. Job losses in the cosmetics sector alone are calculated at around 32,000 people. The largest sales losses occur in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Austria, at around EUR 8 billion in total. These estimates rest on econometric models in which the gap between expected and actual sales is explained by counterfeiting indicators such as consumer surveys, goods seized at the border and related crime records.
The main conclusions for manufacturers:
- Customs alone is not enough. When counterfeits move in large numbers of small shipments, the chance of being caught at the border falls. A brand has to build visibility in its own markets and channels.
- The fight starts online. Monitoring and removing the marketplace and social media listings that feed small-parcel traffic addresses the problem closer to its source.
- Packaging is a target too. Because localisation tactics move packaging separately, it matters that the packaging itself is verifiable.
- In risky categories, verification has to reach the field. In groups such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, food, toys and spare parts, a dealer's and an end user's ability to verify a product is a safety matter.
- Cooperation is needed. The report calls for better coordination and information sharing among enforcement authorities, rights holders and intermediaries, including postal and shipping services. Documented, consistently kept detection records are the basis of that cooperation.
Spectrace develops tools that answer these needs. Grafex makes packaging verifiable with an invisible signature, embedded in the existing packaging design and printed on the existing line, whose copy cannot pass verification. Tagvex, through unique numbering at batch or unit level and chain-of-custody records, makes copied codes visible as repeated or unexpected reads. Authex documents infringements on marketplaces, social media, advertising, domain names and app stores and follows removal processes until they are resolved; it also monitors whether removed content reappears. Verification is done with the mobile app on a smartphone.
Conclusion
The 2025 OECD and EUIPO report shows that although counterfeit trade's share of global trade has fallen slightly, its absolute value has grown, distribution has shifted to small parcels and online channels, and dangerous goods make up a significant part of the total. Türkiye's prominence in origin and transit statistics makes the subject all the more important for Turkish manufacturers, both in protecting their own brands and in building trust in export markets.
Sources
- EUIPO, Mapping Global Trade in Fakes 2025, 2025
- OECD/EUIPO, Mapping Global Trade in Fakes 2025 - Global Trends and Enforcement Challenges (full report), 2025
- OECD/EUIPO, Mapping Global Trade in Fakes 2025 - Executive Summary, 2025
- EUIPO, Economic impact of counterfeiting in the clothing, cosmetics and toy sectors in the EU, 2024
- EUIPO, Counterfeit goods cost EU industries billions of euros and thousands of jobs annually, 2024
